Havish M Consulting
Customer Case Study · Risk, Fraud & Collections
Housing Finance × Havish M Consulting

See stress before the first missed EMI, and act on it fairly

HMC helped the housing finance company's risk and collections teams move from reacting to overdue buckets to acting on early signals: an early-warning score for every live loan, link analysis that exposes fraud rings across applications, a collections plan built on propensity and team capacity, and GenAI outreach that is checked against fair-practice rules before it is sent.

ClientHousing Finance FunctionRisk · Fraud · Collections ThemeEarly Warning & Smart Collections
Earlier warning of stress
0days
before the first missed EMI
Accounts rolling from 1–30 to 31–60 days past due
0% fewer
▼ more customers cured early
Linked suspicious applications caught before disbursal
0×
network checks, not file-by-file
Collection cost per ₹100 recovered
0% lower
▼ right channel for each customer

Figures indicative; validated metrics available on request.

The Challenge

By the time an account was overdue, the best moment had passed

Risk was measured in days past due, fraud checks looked at one file at a time, and collections treated every customer in a bucket the same way.

Late detection

Stress showed up as a missed EMI. Salary delays, bounces and new borrowing that came before it were not tracked together.

Fraud hidden in the links

Each application looked clean on its own. The shared phones, devices, valuers and employers only showed across files.

One-size collections

Agents worked lists by bucket and amount. Customers who would self-cure got calls; customers who needed a plan got pressure.

Conduct risk

Recovery messages and calls must follow fair-practice rules on timing, tone and privacy. Checks were manual and sample-based.

HMC Approach

Signals first, then the right treatment

Explainable models the credit and collections teams can read, with GenAI used for outreach inside clear guardrails.

Select a step to see what happened.

Discover · Where stress shows first

Back-tested past slippages against the data available months earlier.

  • Repayment, bureau, bank-statement and contact-centre signals mapped.
  • Past fraud cases traced to the attributes they shared.
  • Collections journeys and costs by channel measured.

Deliverable: Signal inventory and baseline roll rates.

Design · Explainable scores and rules

Every score shows its reasons.

  • Early-warning score from seven monthly signals.
  • Link rules: which shared attributes are strong, which are benign.
  • Treatment matrix on ability and willingness to pay, with fair-practice guardrails.

Deliverable: Model and policy design signed off by risk and compliance.

Build · Four working tools

One workspace for risk, fraud control and collections.

  • Monthly risk radar with account-level reasons.
  • Application link graph with ring detection.
  • Allocation planner and GenAI message drafts with a compliance check.

Deliverable: Working tools and daily dashboards.

Adopt · Pilot with zone teams

People decide; the tools prepare.

  • Pre-due calls for high-risk accounts in pilot zones.
  • Fraud control unit reviews every flagged ring before disbursal.
  • Agents trained on hardship conversations and the message checker.

Deliverable: Pilot results and playbook.

Scale · All zones, monthly refresh

Models monitored and refreshed.

  • Score drift and fairness checks every month.
  • New link types added as fraud patterns change.
  • Outcome feedback loops into treatment choice.

Deliverable: Model governance and roll-out plan.

The Solution

Four tools, from first signal to fair recovery

Each module below runs live on a synthetic loan book of 480 home loans and 46 applications. Click, drag and play with them.

✦ Live GenAI

Templates

Optional. Every ✦ button already works on built-in templates. Add an OpenAI key to make them live: ask the portfolio in your own words, draft in eight languages, fix blocked drafts, read customer replies and role-play calls.

The key goes only from this browser to OpenAI and stays in memory unless you tick "remember". Only the synthetic data on this page is sent.

01 · Early-warning radar

Every live loan, scored every month

Each dot is a home loan. Play the months and watch signals build before accounts fall overdue. Switch signals off to see what each one adds, and move the threshold to match team capacity.

FY 2026–27 · synthetic
✦

Signals in the score

Flag accounts with risk ≥

Synthetic portfolio. Scores use repayment, bureau, bank-statement and contact signals only; no protected attributes.

02 · Fraud ring detector

Look across applications, not just inside them

Applications are linked when they share a phone, device, bank account, address, unverified employer, valuer or DSA. Strong links form rings. Drag nodes, switch link types off, and click any application for its reasons.

46 applications received this week. Press "Run ring detection".

Synthetic applications. Flags send files for verification by the fraud control unit; nothing is rejected automatically.

03 · Collections planner

The right treatment for each customer, within team capacity

September's overdue and high-risk accounts, placed by ability and willingness to pay. Switch to the plan view to see each customer flow into a channel, and compare today's bucket-first allocation with propensity-led allocation.

Allocation

Tele-callers
Field agents
Hardship counsellors

Per cycle: a tele-caller handles 15 accounts, a field agent 6 visits and a counsellor 5 restructuring cases. Digital nudges have no limit.

04 · Collections copilot

Personal, respectful outreach, checked before it is sent

Pick a customer. Draft a message in their language and check it against fair-practice rules, read what their reply really says, or rehearse the call with the AI playing the customer.

Templates
Channel
Language
Tone
✦
Planned contact time

Fair-practice check

–

Synthetic customers. In production an LLM drafts within these templates and guardrails, and every draft passes the checker before it is sent. Placeholders in [brackets] are filled by the system.

Impact Dashboard

Fewer accounts roll forward, more cure early

Acting on early signals changed how accounts move between buckets, and the score concentrates future slippages at the top of the list.

Monthly movement between buckets

Accounts per 10,000 moving between days-past-due buckets

Rolled forward (worse)Cured or moved back

How well the list finds future slippages

Cumulative gains: share of slippages caught by working the riskiest accounts first

Bucket and rules list (before)Early-warning score (after)Random order

Figures indicative; validated metrics available on request.

Before vs After

How risk and collections work now

DimensionBeforeAfter
Spotting stressAfter the first missed EMIWeeks earlier, from seven monthly signals
Fraud checksOne application at a timeLinks across applications, rings flagged before disbursal
AllocationBy bucket and amountBy ability, willingness and team capacity
Hardship casesSame pressure as everyoneRouted to counsellors for a plan
Customer messagesGeneric templatesPersonal, in the customer's language
Conduct checksSample audits after the factEvery message checked before sending
Tools & Tech Used

The risk and collections stack

Python scoring and back-testing Gradient boosting with reason codes explainable early warning Graph analytics application link rings Optimisation capacity-aware allocation Large language model outreach drafts with guardrails Power BI daily risk and collections views
Key Takeaways

What any lender can borrow

01

Signals beat buckets

The month before a missed EMI usually tells the story. Score it, explain it and act before the bucket changes.

02

Fraud hides in the links

A clean file can sit inside a dirty network. Check what applications share, and know which links are harmless.

03

Right treatment, within the rules

Match the channel to the customer, help those in hardship, and check every message for fair practice before it goes out.